In the first half of 2012, the production and sales growth of the machinery industry will tend to stabilize

This year is a crucial year for the implementation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and is also the most serious year for the economic operation of the machinery industry after the international financial crisis in 2008. Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of the production and sales of the machinery industry has continued to decline on the basis of a marked fall in the previous year, and the decline rate and duration have exceeded the original expectations. In this context, the machinery industry has conscientiously implemented the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council and actively promoted the adjustment of the industrial structure. In the second quarter, the economic operation speed of the machinery industry slowed down, and the production and sales growth stabilized.

Comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the industry's production and sales this year will continue to maintain double-digit growth, the growth rate of about 14%, but the growth rate of industry profits will be significantly lower than the production and sales, it is estimated that will be about 5%, total exports increased by about 15%. As a whole, the current external economic environment is still severe, and the industry is facing many difficulties and unfavorable factors. Under the current situation, the entire industry must make good use of the force-driven mechanism and actively advance the structural adjustment and transformation of the development mode of the machinery industry so as to ensure the improvement of the quality of industry growth.

First, the first half of the main operating characteristics of the machinery industry (A) growth in the growth of sales and stability down the first half of the first half of the machinery industry to complete the total industrial output value and sales value of 8.7 trillion and 8.5 trillion yuan, year-on-year growth of 12.17% and 11.69%. On a monthly basis, the growth rate of production and sales continued to fall at the beginning of the year, but the decline rate has narrowed since then, and the growth rate of production and sales has basically stabilized in June. In the month of June, the total industrial output value reached 1.72 trillion yuan, a record high for the monthly production value.

In the first half of the year, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 9% year-on-year. In the month of June, the value added of the machinery industry increased by 9.5% year-on-year. Although signs of stabilization and recovery have already emerged, the growth rate fell by 7.2 percentage points compared with the first six months of last year, and was also 1.5 percentage points lower than the national industrial increase over the same period.

(II) The growth of total profit was weak, and the profit rate of main business income declined. Since the beginning of this year, the growth of machinery industry performance has been sluggish, and total profit has a negative growth at the beginning of the year. From January to May, the enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry realized a total of 6.75 trillion yuan in revenue from main operations, an increase of 9.85% year-on-year; total profits totaled 420.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.69% from the same period of last year, which was lower than the growth rate of production and sales during the same period by more than 10 percentage points. The profit rate of main business income from January to May was 6.23%, which was 0.5% lower than the same period of last year.

From January to May, the number of loss-making enterprises in the machinery industry increased by 2,863 compared with the same period of last year, with a loss of 16.38%, a year-on-year increase of 3.82 percentage points. However, the monthly losses showed a narrowing trend.

(3) The growth rate of investment in fixed assets continued to fall. In the first half of the year, the total investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry totaled 1.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%. Although the growth rate continued to exceed the national and manufacturing investment growth rates by 8.4 and 4.3 percentage points, it was higher than last year. In the same period (41.77%), it fell 12.97 percentage points. On a monthly basis, the accumulative growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the machinery industry has continued to fall, indicating that the momentum of overcapacity expansion of the machinery industry has started to cool down.

(IV) Destocking is ongoing, and production of some key products is improving Since the beginning of this year, the inventory growth of the machinery industry has continued to slow down, with a year-on-year growth of 12.03% in the first five months, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The inventory of finished products increased by 10.09% year-on-year, 3.53 percentage points lower than that at the beginning of the year and 15.89 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, indicating that machinery enterprises are making progress in destocking.

Among the 120 major product categories, the number of products that achieved year-on-year growth in the first half of the year was 70, which accounted for 58.33% of all reported products; there were 44 products that achieved double-digit growth. The output of road rollers increased 4.77 times year-on-year, the corn harvesting machinery increased 1.09 times, the primary processing machinery for agricultural products increased by 41.4%, and the large-scale tractors increased by 37.3%, which is a product with faster growth rate.

Overall, automotive products showed a slight pick up month by month. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles were 9,529,200 and 9,598,100, respectively, an increase of 4.1% and 2.9% year-on-year. The production and sales volume of passenger cars increased by 7.9% and 7.1% year-on-year respectively; the production and sales volume of commercial vehicles decreased by 8.6% and 10.4% respectively.

(V) The rapid growth of financial expenses and the phenomenon of arrears of payment of goods Since the beginning of last year, the financial expenses of machinery industry enterprises have continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 43.86%, of which interest expenses have increased by 49.17% year-on-year. It is difficult for machinery enterprises to recover the purchase price of goods, and there is a great pressure for advancement of funds. From January to May, the receivables from the machinery industry were as high as 2.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 17.91% on the basis of a higher base in the previous year. Especially in the power generation equipment industry, the year-on-year growth rate exceeded 40%.

(VI) Intense market competition and falling product prices In the face of fierce market competition, the prices of mechanical products have been sluggish. Since this year, the ex-factory price index of machinery industry producers has always been below 100%, indicating that the producer prices of machinery industry have fallen year-on-year, and monthly The decline has slightly increased, reflecting the current price of machinery industry products is still in a downward channel. The ex-factory price index for January-June was 98.9%, which was 0.4 percentage point lower than that in January-February. Of the 142 products, the ex-factory prices of 61 products decreased year-on-year, accounting for 43%.

(7) Insufficient orders Since the beginning of this year, the orders of the machinery industry enterprises have apparently declined. From January to June, the accumulated orders of key enterprises of the machinery industry decreased by 0.95% year-on-year, which was a substantial drop from the growth rate of more than 20% in previous years. However, according to some companies, following the series of “steady growth” measures introduced by the state, the number of users who recently consulted for machinery companies is increasing, indicating that the demand has begun to rise.

(8) Industry differentiation The sub-sectors such as agricultural machinery, instrumentation, petrochemical general machinery, mining machinery, and automobiles have a relatively good situation, and sub-sectors such as construction machinery, machine tools, internal-combustion engines, and electricians are under greater downward pressure.

Second, the severe situation is forcing the industry to accelerate the pace of structural adjustment Although the overall operation of the machinery industry in the first half of the situation is relatively grim, but in the role of the market forced mechanism, the pace of adjustment of the industrial structure of the machinery industry is accelerating.

(1) Exploiting the international market, monthly export of machinery industry, high mechanical industry exports, continuous double-digit growth in the past three months. From January to May, the accumulated export volume of the machinery industry was 141.5 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and the growth rate was higher than the national foreign trade export (8.7%) by 7.08 percentage points. Judging from the absolute quantity, the export volume for the month of May reached US$32.72 billion, setting a new high for the monthly export value of the machinery industry. In terms of sub-sectors, industries with severe economic slowdown in previous periods have increased their efforts to open up international markets and expand exports. The recent export momentum is good, such as construction machinery industry, automobile industry, machine tool industry and heavy machinery industry. This year 1-5 Monthly export volume increased by 31.8%, 19.92%, 23.39% and 33.39% year-on-year respectively.

(II) “High-end, high-tech development” is becoming the common choice for more and more companies to cope with the current difficulties Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the external environment in which demand has declined and tightened, under the guidance of national industrial policies and related planning, the entire industry Accelerate the pace of structural adjustment and increase the "high-end, high-tech foundation" efforts to cope with the current difficulties and gain new room for development. This successful practice is being expanded by a small number of companies that have gone one step ahead to more companies, achieving benefits and High growth in production and sales.

(III) Private enterprises and small enterprises showed stronger endogenous development dynamism. In this round of adjustments, private enterprises and small-scale enterprises in the machinery industry showed stronger development vitality.

In the first half of the year, privately-owned machinery enterprises achieved a total output value of 4.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.47% year-on-year, 5.3 percentage points higher than the entire industry, and their share increased to 55%; from January to May, they achieved a profit of 207.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.92%. In the industry average of 11.23%, the proportion has risen to 49%.

In the first half of the year, the total industrial output value of small-scale enterprises in the machinery industry increased by 19.63% year-on-year, far higher than the growth rate of large enterprises (7.35%) and medium-sized enterprises (8.29%) in the same period. From January to May, the profits of small-sized enterprises increased by 16.73% year-on-year, and both large-scale and medium-sized enterprises decreased year-on-year.

(IV) Transfer of investment to central and western regions under the guidance of national industrial policies Gross output value of machinery industry in the first half of the Central and Western regions increased by 19.18% and 11.47% year-on-year, respectively, which was 9.05 and 1.34 percentage points higher than that of the eastern region. From the perspective of completion of regional investment, the eastern, central and western regions respectively completed fixed asset investments of 852 billion yuan, 468.8 billion yuan, and 207.6 billion yuan, an increase of 23.74%, 36.38%, and 34.5% year-on-year. The central and western regions were significantly higher than the eastern regions. From the perspective of the proportion of investment, the eastern region showed a trend of decreasing month by month, and the proportion of investment in the central and western regions increased from 25% at the beginning of the year to 44%.