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First, from the perspective of domestic consumption demand, China’s economy is still in a steady and rapid growth phase in 2007. Taking into account the continuity of national regulatory policies and the persistence of changes in the economic cycle, it is estimated that the growth rate of GDP can still reach about 10%. This will continue to create a rigid pull for oil demand; on the other hand, from the perspectives of energy saving, environmental protection and sustainable development, adjusting the structure, reducing fuel consumption, and controlling the excessive growth of oil consumption will remain an urgent task for all walks of life. With the need of reality, this will continue to restrain the excessive growth of consumer demand to some extent.
Second, from the point of view of the degree of supply of market supply, rising oil prices have promoted the oil industry to increase investment in oil exploration and development, and will gradually form new production capacity to ensure a steady increase in domestic production. At the same time, under the promotion of trade policies such as efforts to expand import countries, multi-channel imports, and the end of the five-year transition period after China’s accession to the WTO and market reform and opening up, China’s oil imports can still be guaranteed.
Third, from the perspective of changes in the international market, with the improvement of the global energy efficiency and the improvement of the energy consumption structure, the dependence of the global economy on oil has decreased, and its endurance to high oil prices has also increased. The relevant institutional analysis report pointed out that in 2007, the growth of global crude oil demand is expected to slow down, and crude oil supply to non-OPEC member countries is expected to achieve significant growth, which will help ease the relationship between supply and demand. However, many factors that have pushed up the price of oil have not been completely eliminated. The fragile balance of supply and demand in the market is easily broken. This makes the international crude oil market in 2007 still full of variables. Although the international oil price has dropped from more than 70 US dollars a few months ago to more than 50 US dollars in January 2007, it is still at a relatively high price. It is generally believed that the possibility of a significant drop in international oil prices in 2007 is unlikely. It is estimated that most barrels of crude oil will fluctuate between 55 and 65 dollars, which is lower than the average level in 2006.
To sum up, in 2007, the supply and demand situation of the Chinese oil market will continue to maintain a modest increase in output, steady increase in demand, and a basic balance between supply and demand. The external dependence of resources will be maintained at a level of 45%, and supply shortages will continue to ease. The market price will follow the changes in the international market to show a high level of decline and tend to be stable. The annual average price will be lower than the level in 2006, but generally there will not be a significant decline in the market.
In 2006, the international crude oil market fluctuated again and again. During the first half of the year, oil prices continued to rise and rise sharply during the ups and downs. After a record high in the middle of July and August, oil prices gradually fell back. Looking ahead to 2007, there are still many variables in the international oil market. The global economic situation, geopolitical situation and how the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will act will have an important impact on oil prices; the domestic oil product market will also change with international markets and The reform of the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the deepening of the degree of marketization, the trend of market supply and demand and other factors have changed. The main factors affecting the supply and demand situation and price changes in the Chinese oil market in 2007 are as follows: